Craps Winners: A Spy’s Casino Game of Choice?
- Greatest Craps Roll Ever Roll
- Greatest Craps Roll Ever Win
- Actual Craps Rolls
- Craps Roll Names
- World Record Craps Roll
- Greatest Craps Roll Ever Wins
- My personal best roll was probably about 30 minutes. I hit about 8 sixes and 8 eights, but it was my first time at a craps table and I was only betting the pass, so I didn't profit much at all. I've been getting killed at the tables and need some happy stories to inspire me to keep going, so any stories about monster rolls you've had/seen would.
- In 1992, the California Hotel & Casino commemorated Fujitake’s record roll by creating the “Golden Arm” award. Ever since then, any craps player at the California who can roll for one hour or more without sevening out earns entrance to the Golden Arm club.
- John Patrick’s Advanced Craps. John Patrick’s Advanced Craps was written by John Patrick.
- Topic: The Greatest Craps Roll Ever, Atlantic City New Jersey (Read 1440 times) 0 Members and 1 Guest are viewing this topic. B&M Player since 1980.
John Grochowski is the best-selling author of The Craps Answer Book, The Slot Machine Answer Book and The Video Poker Answer Book. His weekly column is syndicated to newspapers and Web sites, and he contributes to many of the major magazines and newspapers in the gaming field, including Midwest Gaming and Travel, Slot Manager, Casino Journal, Strictly Slots and Casino Player.
Craps: it’s not considered the most glamourous of casino games, is it? The less glitzy reputation is probably due to some unconscious revulsion at the name: “Craps”, who chose that name and why? Yep, you’ll find Hollywood Blockbusters about Poker, but not about Craps…then again, there aren’t any Blockbusters about Bingo either!
Sure, James Bond shoots some Craps in “Diamonds are Forever” (and that isn’t a euphemism – he actually plays Craps. He doesn’t shoot some baddy called “Craps”), but in general, it isn’t considered a stylish game…
…that’s a shame because if more people realised how big you can win at the Craps table, more people would play, and it’s a fun game to play. It’s one of the few casino games that has a complex set of rules, with interesting twists and turns. It’s fun to watch and to play.
In Craps, you can get some long winning streaks (the longest we know of is 154 rolls, but more on that in a minute) and some huge profits. It really is surprising that we don’t make more of a deal of it.
If you’ve never tried your hand at Craps before, then read on. Today, we’re going to show you just how glamourous Craps can be – a millionaire’s lifestyle is ready and waiting for the lucky players amongst you. Now, let’s meet some of the luckiest Craps players…
Five Biggest Craps Winners
First up, we have Stanley Fujitake. In May 1989, Fujitake made more than $1,000,000 in 3 hours at the California Hotel and Casino, Las Vegas. What followed was the longest recorded Craps roll in history, at that time. He rolled 118 times before he passed the dice along. So legendary was this particular Craps session that a new name was born for the greatest players. Lucky Craps players are said to have the “Golden Arm”. Today, the casino sees an average of one Golden Arm a month, and lucky winners get their name in “The Golden Arm Club”. Fujitake received a Golden Arm no less than four times!
#2 Craps Winner
Twenty years later, in 2009, Patricia Demauro broke Fujitake’s winning record. She now holds the record for longest ever Craps roll, at 154 rolls over 4 hours and 18 minutes. Much mystery surrounds this winning streak; Demauro won’t say how much she won. It could have been anywhere from $500 to $5,000,000. Our guess is that it leans towards the heftier side. Otherwise, why keep it a secret?
#3 Craps Winner
Next, we meet “The Phantom Gambler”. Why he received this nickname is unclear, because we know perfectly well who he is: William Lee Bergstrom. In the 1980s, at Horseshoe Casino, Las Vegas, he won more than $700K. He walked in with two suitcases, one empty, and one full of money – $770K according to reports – and gambled it all on a single Craps roll, winning a further $770K, which he then put in his empty suitcase. Over the course of the coming months, he did this twice more, winning first $190K and then $90K. Finally, he did what he’d set out to do all along, and bet $1m on a single Craps bet. You’ll never guess what happened…
…he lost! Craps! Yep, he lost $1m and never recuperated that money. Unfortunately, in 1985 he committed suicide. He still had a lot of money in the bank at that time, so it’s unlikely the two events were linked. Still, a warning to would-be big rollers out there: make sure you take risks you can afford to lose!
#4 Craps Winner
The following two stories are urban legends. According to one source, the biggest Craps win at Caesar Palace, Las Vegas is $2m, supposedly won by one of Hollywood’s top executive. This guy was high rolling with working bets of $160K. That’s all we know, but if a big Craps film comes out soon, I’m going to place a bet that this guy has something to do with it.
#5 Craps Winner
Finally, we have the tale of “Mr Royalty” (a Bond name if ever we heard one!). According to Tom Breitling, former owner of The Golden Nugget, Las Vegas, a member of a royal family somewhere in Europe, won $4.7m over a six-hour period on the Craps tables, returning a week later to win a further $1.5m!
Craps isn’t as flashy as some casino games, and the jackpots aren’t as big, but one thing that makes it stand out is the secrecy. We hear urban legends, rumours of big wins, but only three or four verified wins. In all but name, it definitely is a game for secret agents like Bond.
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37 members have voted
Dragline
Kind of a trick question, because if he sevens on roll #2, he never has an opportunity to seven out on the third or later roll.
So if the chance is 1/6 on the second roll, its only 5/6 x 1/6 on the third, because you don't even get there 1/6 of the time. The very possibility of it happening on roll two reduces this conditional probability for subsequent rolls.
So if the chance is 1/6 on the second roll, its only 5/6 x 1/6 on the third, because you don't even get there 1/6 of the time. The very possibility of it happening on roll two reduces this conditional probability for subsequent rolls.
mustangsally
Kind of a trick question, because if he sevens on roll #2, he never has an opportunity to seven out on the third or later roll.
thank you for joining the discussion herenow,
not at all
kind of a trick question
really a simple easy question
a craps shooter picks his 2 dice and faces his first come out roll
what roll (from 2 to 2,000,000,000,000) is the most likely roll to 7 out on?
craps players say the skill of the shooter determines the answer, but that is not true, imo, as each roll is an independent event
some also say to 7out on roll 2 is a rare event
I have shown the probabilities to 7out on the 2nd and the 3rd roll so far in other posts
summary
the 2nd roll is easy as the only sequences that qualify are these
4,7
5,7
6,7
8,7
9,7
10,7
because there are 36*36 = 1296 ways the dice can land in exactly 2 rolls
we can easily calculate the number of ways for each sequence
4,7 = 3*6 = 18
5,7 = 4*6 = 24
6,7 = 5*6 = 30
(18+24+30)*2 = 144 ways
so 144/1296
but all this math was not really needed as the case for 2 rolls is simply 2/3 * 1/6 = 2/18 = 1/9 = 11.11%
Quote: Dragline
So if the chance is 1/6 on the second roll,
yesits only 5/6 x 1/6 on the third, because you don't even get there 1/6 of the time.
you over-countingthe first roll could be a 7 followed by 4,7 for example
Quote: Dragline
The very possibility of it happening on roll two reduces this conditional probability for subsequent rolls.
well, roll 3 has a higher probability than roll 2 as I showed in another postso your conclusion is not correct
every possible sequence is right here to 7out on that 3rd roll
2,4,7
2,5,7
2,6,7
2,8,7
2,9,7
2,10,7
3,4,7
3,5,7
3,6,7
3,8,7
3,9,7
3,10,7
4,2,7
4,3,7
4,5,7
4,6,7
4,8,7
4,9,7
4,10,7
4,11,7
4,12,7
5,2,7
5,3,7
5,4,7
5,6,7
5,8,7
5,9,7
5,10,7
5,11,7
5,12,7
6,2,7
6,3,7
6,4,7
6,5,7
6,8,7
6,9,7
6,10,7
6,11,7
6,12,7
7,4,7
7,5,7
7,6,7
7,8,7
7,9,7
7,10,7
8,2,7
8,3,7
8,4,7
8,5,7
8,6,7
8,9,7
8,10,7
8,11,7
8,12,7
9,2,7
9,3,7
9,4,7
9,5,7
9,6,7
9,8,7
9,10,7
9,11,7
9,12,7
10,2,7
10,3,7
10,4,7
10,5,7
10,6,7
10,8,7
10,9,7
10,11,7
10,12,7
11,4,7
11,5,7
11,6,7
11,8,7
11,9,7
11,10,7
12,4,7
12,5,7
12,6,7
12,8,7
12,9,7
12,10,7
if one does the math the same way as I did for the 2nd roll
and divide the total by 36*36*36
that should be
5448 / 46656 = 11.67695473251%
higher than roll 2 at 11.11%
both of my results match these here
http://wizardofodds.com/games/craps/number-of-rolls/
'The second column is the probability of a seven-out on exactly that roll'
and the 2nd article here
http://wizardofvegas.com/member/7craps/blog/
now on to roll 4 but with a different method
using the chance of the 4th roll NOT being a 7out
(and will show roll 2 and 3 too this way)
My Excel
len-shooters-hand-recursive.xlsb
link in my blog
Greatest Craps Roll Ever Roll
Roll | State 1 (cor) | State 2 (4or10) | State 3 (5or9) | State 4 (6or8) | survive past roll x |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
1 | 12/36 | 6/36 | 8/36 | 10/36 | 1 |
2 | 0.188271605 | 0.180555556 | 0.234567901 | 0.285493827 | 0.888888889 |
Roll 0 = the shooter has selected the 2 dice for the come out roll but has not yet thrown them.
The 1 = that probability, the 3 point states are = 0
Greatest Craps Roll Ever Win
after roll#1
we now see the 4 probabilities for the 4 states the hand can be in
we must be in one of the 4 states with the stated probabilities.
(we are not considering a no-roll)
There are also transition probabilities to get to each state from roll to roll
It should be clear there are only two ways to get to a point state.
Either we came from a COR state at rollN-1 (the point was just established)
or we have remained in the point state (the roll was not a 7out or a point winner)
for row = roll 1
C3 = (6/36)*B2 + (27/36)*C2
(6/36)*B2 = the chance of rolling a 4 or 10 * the probability of being on the cor on the last roll
(27/36)*C2 = the chance of rolling any number except a 4,10,7 * the probability of being in that point state on the very last roll
D3 = (8/36)*B2 + (26/36)*D2
E3 = (10/36)*B2 + (25/36)*E2
for B3 we now have 4 ways to get to the cor
= (12/36)*B2 + (3/36)*C2 + (4/36)*D2 + (5/36)*E2
= we stay +we came from + we came from + we came from
F2 = the sum of B2 to E2
these cells get filled down to how far you want to go
I went to row 202
ok
this is done for me for now
I get bored quickly doing simple math
this was fun to a point
Roll | 7out on |
---|---|
0 | 0 |
1 | 0 |
2 | 0.111111111 |
3 | 0.116769547 |
4 | 0.104766804 |
5 | 0.091223629 |
6 | 0.078918038 |
7 | 0.068166764 |
8 | 0.058852758 |
9 | 0.05080065 |
10 | 0.043844137 |
11 | 0.037836136 |
imo,
it has been reported in the media that this problem is very difficult to calculate.
http://blogs.wsj.com/numbers/crunching-the-numbers-on-a-craps-record-703/
Some (including the Wizard of Odds who was in the news) used a simulation and some a Markov chain
Sally just used simple multiply and addition with the help of a spreadsheet
the world still has a long way to go to get to easy street for everyone
Sally
MrLeft
I refused to answer because, stick change, waitress at the table and somebody spoke to the shooter are not on the choices.
^ LMAO ^
Yeah .. the real answer is NEVER .. there is no roll you're ever more likely to roll a 7 .. each and every roll you only have a 1 in 6 chance of rolling 7 .. and a 5 in 6 chance of not rolling a 7! ;)
As for the answer of 'how many rolls' until you roll a seven. The 'average' would 6 .. since you always have a 1 in 6 chance. But obviously some of those rolls are forgotten because not too may people count 2,3,11,12 when there is a point and you're not playing Come bets or props. Then you also need to factor in '7 winners' on come out rolls after the previous roll was won (this is where you ask the Wizard to do his thing .. lol). And bla bla bla ... at the end of the day each roll you roll has a 1 in 6 chance of getting 7! Unless as Ontario Dealer forgot to mention .. it's a full moon on a Friday between 10 and 11 (am or pm doesn't really matter at this point)! ;)
sodawater
Edit -- misread the question
TerribleTom
The next one, of course!
FleaStiff
that should be 5448 / 46656 = 11.67695473251%
higher than roll 2 at 11.11%
Sally
Okay, that is 0.56 %.higher than roll 2 at 11.11%
Sally
So if I am out on the Strip panhandling so I can come in and get another twenty dollar buy-in, that 0.56 percent means twelve minutes less panhandling time.
AlanMendelson
I voted for 5 rolls since that's about what happens to me.
But I think the chances of a 7-out increases with the more rolls each shooter has since a 7-out is inevitable. If you escaped a 7 out for the first 100 rolls the likelihood of a 7 out increases on the 101st roll, and so forth.
The practical advice is to use this data to know when to stop pressing and to start regressing.
Given everything else discussed here, as soon as the shooter starts smiling the 7 is coming.
But I think the chances of a 7-out increases with the more rolls each shooter has since a 7-out is inevitable. If you escaped a 7 out for the first 100 rolls the likelihood of a 7 out increases on the 101st roll, and so forth.
The practical advice is to use this data to know when to stop pressing and to start regressing.
Given everything else discussed here, as soon as the shooter starts smiling the 7 is coming.
Actual Craps Rolls
dicesitter
Alan
I will take the hundred and then see what happens. smiling...
I tend to have a number of short rolls which don't bother me much, as long
as I understand what I am looking for, then when I see what I am looking for
I bet more and most nights I have enough rolls over 20 to make a reasonable return
on my time.
But over-all i would agree, 4-5 is most likely, if i make it past 5-6 i have a good chance to hit
20 or more rolls.
Dicesetter
I will take the hundred and then see what happens. smiling...
I tend to have a number of short rolls which don't bother me much, as long
as I understand what I am looking for, then when I see what I am looking for
I bet more and most nights I have enough rolls over 20 to make a reasonable return
on my time.
But over-all i would agree, 4-5 is most likely, if i make it past 5-6 i have a good chance to hit
20 or more rolls.
Dicesetter
spr1000
I voted 6. From my experience,If there's a full table 2 out of 10 People will 7 out on the 2nd roll.
beachbumbabs
Administrator
I am both of those people. When I was in Biloxi last month, I decided to prove it. I played with a full table but passed on the dice each time. Did ok. Went and did other things. Several hours later, passed the same table, full crew, no players. So I talked to them some about playing the don'ts, because they were available and I'm trying to understand a few things about the game. They were politely incredulous about my (admittedly sparse) throwing claims as a PSO loser. So I threw 12 PSO's in a row. No kidding. Interspersed were 2 come-out 7's and 3 craps, but every time I set a point my next throw was a 7. Even threw one from behind my back trying to change it up.Administrator
Craps Roll Names
Ask Al, the PB from Harrah's, if you don't believe me. But I made sure I was the only one at the table so I wouldn't cost anybody else any money. I tipped them well for the tutorial, but at the end, they said, 'um, yeah, you're a darksider'. I should be proud, I guess.
World Record Craps Roll
BTW, somebody was looking for crapless craps. Harrah's Gulf Coast has it, and it's usually open.
Greatest Craps Roll Ever Wins
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.